EURASIA INSIGHT,
19, September 2007
by Rovshan Ismayilov

Following a first-time visit by American military experts to Azerbaijan's Gabala radar station, Russia and the United States have announced that they are ready for political negotiations about the possible joint use of the facility.

While no formal agreements have yet been reached, Gen. Alexander Yakushin, first deputy chief of the Russian Space Forces, told journalists at a September 18 briefing in Gabala that the two sides "are ready to provide a more coordinated position to our leadership."

The statement came after Azerbaijani, Russian and American military officials and diplomats visited Gabala for a two-hour on-site review of the entire station. Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that United State and Russia jointly operate Gabala as an alternative to planned US anti-missile stations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia holds a lease on Gabala, located some 250 kilometers to the north of Baku, until 2012.

Consultations about Moscow's proposal have been underway since June. Following September 18 talks at a Russian military base adjoining the station, Yakushin told reporters that the Russian side had "answered practically all questions" from the American delegation about the station's "combat readiness, functionality" and its missile-tracking capabilities. Members of the American delegation were more restrained in their assessment. While not rejecting the prospect of missile defense cooperation with Russia, delegation head Brig. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, deputy director of the US Missile Defense Agency, skirted questions about whether Gabala could end up serving as a substitute for planned missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic.

"Based on our recent bilateral discussions on an anti-missile system with Russia in Washington and Paris, we believe that such a possibility [of cooperation] exists," he told reporters. Among the ideas discussed, he said, was a possible information exchange about missile launch signaling. "The US will continue consultations and analyzing any proposal." The trip to Gabala, O'Reilly added, allowed American officers to gain a better understanding of Moscow's proposal for its joint use. In turn, the US has invited Russian experts to visit radar stations in Colorado, California and Alaska.

In calling attention to the station's 1985 construction date, O'Reilly left reporters with the impression that Washington may view the station as out-of-date. "It is a complex objective, and its compatibility with other elements of the US anti-missile system has to be studied in detail," he said.

Yakushin sought to downplay concerns about the facility's age, saying the radar station could be modernized. "If a political decision concerning use of the station . . . will be taken, the work on its modernization will be carried out," the RIA-Novosti news agency quoted the general as saying. "So far, the station meets our demands."

One political analyst in Baku cautioned that it is still too early to predict the Gabala talks' outcome. "The Russians understand that their proposal might have interest for the United States only as part of a larger picture," argued Rasim Musabeyov. While the 22-year-old Gabala station alone might not be enough to secure Washington's interest, plans to build a new radar station (Voronezh) in the Russian city of Armavir that will be able to survey Iranian territory "will double Russia's capability to control missile launches from the south." The ability of Moscow and Washington to reach common ground on other issues, ranging from Iran to Kosovo, could also play a role, Musabeyov noted.

Russian and American experts will next meet in Moscow on October 10, ahead of talks between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Russia's as yet unnamed new defense chief. (Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov resigned on September 18).

Azerbaijan, for now, remains tight-lipped about its own position on the proposal. At a September 17 briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khazar Ibrahim stated only that "Azerbaijan will support agreements that would serve regional and global security."