BBC Monitoring Service, Ekspress,
10, December 2007

A package of proposals, dubbed as "the best compromises draft project", envisages liberation of five Azerbaijani districts under occupation at first stage, an Azerbaijani official has said. In an interview with Ekspress newspaper, the head of foreign relations department of the Azerbaijani presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, further divulged details of the document. The official believes that Azerbaijan's reaction to the "Madrid document" will soon be made public once the president studies it. Mammadov blamed Armenia for abandoning his pledges to the Minsk Group co-chairs. The official believes that the people's diplomacy cannot contribute to the resolution of the problem. He called on Karabakh's ethnic Armenians to share benefits of Azerbaijan's development and coexist peacefully. Nevertheless, the former foreign policy aide, Vafa Quluzada, described the Madrid document as "a trap" for Azerbaijan. The following is the text of Alakbar Raufoglu report in Ekspress newspaper headlined "'The best compromises draft project' has been made public" and subheaded "Novruz Mammadov: `Five districts must be liberated at the first stage with Lacin and Kalbacar at the next; the status of Nagornyy Karabakh might be discussed in 15-20 years'"; subheadings as published:

In an interview with our newspaper yesterday, the head of foreign relations department of the Azerbaijani presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov, made public details of the document on principles [of the resolution of the Karabakh conflict] submitted to the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen in Madrid last week.

The head of the department believes that "they are the proposals which have been discussed under the Prague process for about four years". A stage-by-stage resolution is the cornerstone of the document:

"In the first stage, five of the districts around Nagornyy Karabakh, with the exception of Lacin and Kalbacar, and later on others must be liberated one by one or both at once. Once this happens, those districts must be cleared of mines, the infrastructure of the territories must be restored, refugees must go their homes, the communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan must be opened, international peace-keepers must be deployed in the region although Azerbaijan is ready to guarantee its pledges and the status quo in the region must be restored."

Mammadov also added that Azerbaijan within the limits of the settlement process is ready to give the go-ahead to the opening of the Baku-Naxcivan railway and if possible to give consent to extending it to Armenia. Baku proposes 15-20 years for these processes and then is ready to determine Karabakh's status.

At the same time, the official of the presidential administration said that there was not any agreement to this effect so far: "Should this be the case, the co-chairmen would not have submitted the principles to the sides again."

As soon as the Azerbaijani president studies the document, he will express his position and amendments will be proposed if need be. In its turn, Yerevan should also express its attitude towards the proposals. Nevertheless, Baku is anxious that the opposite side will take advantage of the existing situation and try to win time. Mammadov has drawn attention to Yerevan plans to speculate about the conflict in the run-up to the election although the negotiations are not frozen during the elections in Azerbaijan.

Kocharyan escaped for "consultations" from St Petersburg

Mammadov also responded to the Armenian president's claims that there were conditions to sign agreements twice on core Karabakh principles alleging that they both did not take place due to Baku's fault: "On the contrary, Robert Kocharyan himself gave promises to the co-chairmen and Azerbaijan more than once and went back on them at next meetings. This was the case at the St Petersburg meeting in June 2007."

Mammadov recalled that a similar situation emerged twice in 1998 and 1999. At that time, the sides backed by international community did really agreed. However, what has happened in Armenia did not allow them to come true.

First, Kocharyan with his supporters succeeded in removing his predecessor Levon Ter-Petrosyan from power, second, a terrorist act was committed in the Armenian parliament: "Robert Kocharyan should call a spade a spade if he bears them in mind. Because he himself gave promises to the co-chairmen more than once and then extracted them. For the last time, there were certain expectations in June this year. However, Kocharyan said in St Petersburg that he should consult. However, he had promised it earlier and it was a pretext."

"People's diplomacy is inappropriate now"

The official also commented on international calls to take advantage of the people's diplomacy in the resolution of the conflict. He believes that this is impossible at the current stage. Because Armenia is not taking any steps to renounce its aggressive policy, and given this, the people's diplomacy cannot be successful: "The people of Armenia are under pressure of their leaders. Therefore, given the essence of the current relations, the people's diplomacy is unnecessary and is not justifiable. There is no place for it in the current anatomy of the negotiations."

At the same time, Mammadov hailed the mutual visits of the Azerbaijani and Armenian intelligentsia representatives [to Karabakh, Yerevan and Baku] some months ago as "necessary". With this visit [to Karabakh] Baku managed to verify available reports about Karabakh with what happens there.

Mammadov believes that similar visits can be repeated if need be.

Mammadov also dismissed international concerns about Azerbaijan's belligerent statements because a resort to war is at the bottom of Azerbaijan's Karabakh conception. "But we should first analyze what is behind the concern. They are probably concerned [at the statements] because interest of them international organizations are exposed to danger. Second, we believe Armenia is more concerned about the situation and sends us messages through their Diaspora, lobbyists on behalf of international organizations. However, international community, the co-chairs and Armenia itself should know that sooner or later Azerbaijan must regain its territories. Whatever option fits them to have our territories returned, let them help us to follow that option.

Baku's message to the Karabakh Armenians

Baku hopes that the Armenian people will soon or later understand the reality and show constructive position. Although the negotiations stalled off, the regional processes advance. "Asked what is the message of the Azerbaijani leadership to the Armenian public?" Mammadov said:

"The key message is to the Karabakh Armenians. We want to say: Armenians, be in your right mind. Despite wide-ranging processes over many years, you have been the dearest citizens of Azerbaijan and we coexisted as friends, neighbours and relatives, you tasted the best of everything, you were in the best positions and posts, and we can also continue them from now on. We are magnanimous and share what we have with others. Now you on those territories can benefit Azerbaijan's current development and your life can be better organized here than in France, the USA and Russia. Come and live here within Azerbaijan's sovereignty. This is the best way for you. History will prove this once again."

Vafa Quluzada: "The Madrid document is a trap"

It should be noted that the abovementioned views deny what Yerevan describes as the "emergence of fresh political realities" with the presentation of "the best compromises draft project" submitted [to the sides] by the OSCE Minsk Group. And the impression is that the Karabakh negotiations are at low ebb. The sides uninterested in meetings threat each other and the co-chairmen are engaged in imitation. Despite their efforts "to bring the negotiations process to an end", nothing comes out of this.

Therefore, they tried to sell their "peace principles" in their hands for many months to the sides last week in written, however, it is already obvious that with two months to complete his tenure in office (the Armenian president will quit his post in February 2008), Kocharyan can neither make a surprise move in the settlement process, nor can threat Baku in a persuasive manner over its refusal from the accepted agreements. In a nutshell, the key success of the "the Madrid draft project" for Baku is that it deprives Kocharyan from chances of manipulation with the Karabakh conflict.

However, another reality is that the co-chairmen have lost levers on the sides especially to Yerevan. Given this, Baku has two opportunities either to sit idle until the election year is over or unleash hostilities by turning a blind eye to all dissatisfactions. We should say that the sides were also close to agreements in the peace negotiations for several times (in Key West, Istanbul); however, a final step was taken back rather than forward.

Incidentally, in a conversation with Ekspress, the former state foreign policy aide, Vafa Quluzada, who was closely involved in the Karabakh talks in his time, described "the Madrid document" as a trap. He believes that the principles are also deceptive for Azerbaijan because keeping the discussion of the status of Nagornyy Karabakh to future means to lose it.