BBC Monitoring Service, Yeni Musavat,
8, January 2008

A former presidential aide who is believed to be the main challenger to incumbent Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan's next PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS in October has said that all political figures who claim to contest the election should stand for primaries first, like in the USA, in order to identify one real alternative to Aliyev. Eldar Namazov, who resigned in 1999 in what appeared to be a protest at a proposed peace deal with Armenia, said that primaries are much more effective than discussing the idea of having a single candidate from the opposition. "Some people have already started or are planning to start discussing the issue of a single candidate for the election, while others have thrown the proposal of unity of presidential candidates [from the opposition]. I have a different approach here. Those in the democratic camp who want to contest the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS should start unofficial primaries or a primary election. They should declare their election manifestos, mobilize ! their supporters both in Baku and in the regions and try to enlist support from the public by openly announcing their plans," he said. The following is excerpts from Elsad Mammadli's interview with Namazov in "Yeni Musavat" newspaper headlined "I will make my decision on contesting the election in two months" and subheaded "Eldar Namazov: `presidential hopefuls must brace themselves for primaries'" and also subheaded "The authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan will also quit the political scene". The subheadings have been inserted editorially.

He became one of the most active politicians last year. While many people were speaking pessimistically, political analyst Eldar Namazov was calling on the public not to lose mood and said that the opposition has good chances to win in 2008. Taking into account his optimism, we would like to include Eldar bay [mode of address] on the list of our first interviewees in the new year.

"Quite good chance" for democratic forces

[Yeni Musavat] Eldar bay, what do you expect from the year 2008?

[Namazov] Naturally, the main topic of this year is the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, which will be conducted at the end of the year. All the developments in Azerbaijan this year will be directly or indirectly related to the election. I have expressed my position on the election of 2008 more than once. I reiterate my stance that democratic forces in Azerbaijan have quite a good chance in this election. There remains only the other side of the coin, which is whether the opposition forces will be able to take this chance or not? I think that all of us must step up our activities in order to give an affirmative answer to this question.

Primaries

[Yeni Musavat] Do you think that it will be possible to organize a joint struggle of the opposition in 2008?

[Namazov] The democratic camp should work in two directions. The first direction is, of course, the struggle for ensuring a democratic election and changing the regime. We must coordinate our efforts to resolve some important issues, such as ensuring the release of arrested journalists and political prisoners, making changes to the Electoral Code, restoring the right to freedom of assembly, speaking in the broadcast media, etc. The second direction is the preparation for the election race and those people who are thinking about it must step up their activities.

Everything is clear as regards the first direction. In other words, I do not see any factors that could hinder the activities in the first direction. However, there are many inexplicable issues concerning the second direction. Some people have already started or are planning to start discussing the issue of a single candidate for the election, while others have thrown the proposal of unity of presidential candidates [from the opposition].

I have a different approach here. Those in the democratic camp who want to contest the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS should start unofficial primaries (a primary election). They should declare their election manifestos, mobilize their supporters both in Baku and in the regions and try to enlist support from the public by openly announcing their plans.

This process should continue approximately until summer. This has already become a tradition in the USA. We can see that presidential hopefuls both from the Republican Party and from the Democratic Party announce their plans to the public and hold different meetings and debates. These primaries must identify the main candidate from both parties. We can use a proverb to assess this practice: "Here is the scene and here is the risk". Whoever claims to win the election must start his or her campaign, announce plans and hold rallies and meetings. It will become clear following these processes who the real alternative to the authorities is.

Money matters in election

[Yeni Musavat] Do you think that the ambitious people in the democratic camp will admit that there are stronger candidates than them?

[Namazov] They will not be able to conceal it because there are many factors that will help identify the best candidate. For example, rallies will play a role here. Perhaps, presidential hopefuls will start holding rallies in March to try to mobilize their supporters. It will be clear during those rallies which candidate has bigger chances and more supporters. It will not be possible either to hide which candidate is preferred by reputable persons and intellectuals, whom everybody knows and respects.

Third, every candidate must have enough financial resources to join the election race. If a person says that he is a real candidate, but he does not have financial support or resources to wage a struggle, he has a wrong impression about his chances. This is because if he were a real candidate, he would have financial support. This is an important factor.

Finally, we will see until summer who has strong relations not only within the country, but also in the international arena. There may be numerous candidates in every election, but everybody understands that there is a real alternative among them.

For example, [the leader of the Azarbaycan Milli Istiqlal Party] Etibar Mammadov was the real candidate for presidency in 1998 and [Musavat leader] Isa Qambar in 2003. I am sure that such a case will be in 2008. It will be known who is the real rival for the authorities after the unofficial primaries are over. That is why, I think that the democratic forces should work in two directions. In other words, we must combine our efforts to struggle for a free and democratic election and those who want to contest the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS must present themselves to the public, show their potential and learn the reaction of the public.

Idea of single candidate "harmful"

[Yeni Musavat] What is the democratic camp expected to do in January?

[Namazov] Naturally, I will be speaking about the first direction I mentioned above. That is to say, we must join our efforts to reach our common goals and ensure our common interests. We must think about the release of arrested journalists and political prisoners, the restoration of the right to free assembly and freedom of speech and the improvement of the electoral law. We need to set up certain coordinating bodies in this area. Discussions are under way in three or four formats in the democratic camp. We need to bring together the mentioned formats, change the existing environment in Azerbaijan and build up the activities of the democratic forces rather than discussing such harmful issues as a single candidate and people who will contest the election.

Decision to contest election to come soon

[Yeni Musavat] Eldar bay, your decision about the form of your participation in the election has not been made public yet. When will you announce your decision?

[Namazov] We must use the world's best experience in our struggle. I think that running for the election will go through two stages. First, one needs to put forth his intention to contest. As I mentioned above, primaries should be started in order to fulfil this intention. This is not a decision to contest the election. This is an intention to run for it. It is possible to take a second step, which is making an official decision to contest the election if this intention enlists support from the public, serious political forces start to rally around that possible candidate and his massive protests gain success. I am planning to carry out the first stage. This is the first time that I have announced my intention to you. I will start holding meetings about my plans both in Baku and in other regions of the country in the months to come. And I will make my decision in approximately two months on the basis of those meetings.

Two candidates from ruling family?

[Yeni Musavat] While speaking about the election, some experts are saying that there may be another candidate from the ruling family. They are saying that this has even started to be seen. For example, it is not considered accidental that one of the local TV channels has started promoting [President Ilham Aliyev's sister] Sevil Aliyeva. This is despite the fact that Sevil xanim [mode of address] has not been active in Azerbaijan for many years. But now it is evident in the election year that she is becoming active... [ellipses as published].

[Namazov] I know the ruling family very well and I do not think that there can be an alternative candidate from the family to stand for the election. It is true that there have been some rumours about the establishment of a second ruling party. These are not mere rumours. I have accurate information that some work is being done in this direction. I do not accept the work, which is being carried out around Baku and in Sirvan [historical region that comprised northeastern districts of today's Azerbaijan], as an alternative policy to the main candidate of the government. This might be a process to increase support for the main candidate of the government. However, if we take the government as a whole, we can see that there are different groups in it. The interests of those groups seriously clash and some groups have already been neutralized. That is why I can say that the government is not going to this election as a united force. Unlike the previous elections it is very diffic! ult to preserve the integrity of the authorities.

In essence, this is another chance for the democratic forces. It is true that the democratic forces are not going to the election as a united force either. But I noted at the beginning of my speech that most of the voters rally around one real candidate. The opposition saw this in 1998 and 2003. But this is something new for a government that is no longer a united force.

"Illusions" about changing Electoral Code

[Yeni Musavat] One of the topics of the heated debates is about making changes to the Electoral Code. Do you think that the authorities will heed the demands of the democratic forces and international organizations?

[Namazov] I do not want the public to develop illusions. I can say with full confidence that the Azerbaijani authorities will never agree to losing control of election commissions. They will not make more than cosmetic changes to the electoral law. The course of the talks between the authorities and the Venice Commission [of the Council of Europe] gives us the ground to say so.

However, this does not mean that it is meaningless to contest the election and the democratic forces have no chance to win if the authorities preserve their dominance in election commissions. A paradoxical situation has taken shape: the authorities had control of election commissions in countries like Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, where democratic forces won. The authorities originally announced their fake victory in those countries, but they had to quit the political scene as a result of an intelligent and consecutive struggle of democratic forces.

The paradox is that the democratic forces can ensure their victory even if the authorities control election commissions. Its mechanism is quite simple. It is not election commissions alone that conduct the voting. International organizations also carry out monitoring and exit polls, while domestic observers work on the other side. The authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan will be out of the political scene if non-governmental organizations, international observers and exit polls announce an opposition candidate's winning and the democratic camp wages an effective and consecutive struggle to make its victory official.

Therefore, besides stepping up our struggle for changing the electoral law, having political prisoners and journalists released and ensuring freedom of expression and assembly, we also need to avoid thinking that there is no use standing for election if we fail to achieve what we want in one particular field and that the fate of the election has been predetermined. This is not the case. [Passage omitted: repetition]

[Yeni Musavat] The committee to protect freedom of speech, which you are also a member of, attempted to hold rallies several times at the end of last year, but failed to achieve the desired result. Will you continue your efforts in this direction?

[Namazov] As you may know, the authorities did not allow us to hold a rally in Ukrayna Square. But we had meetings with people in various locations on 22 and 30 December. We organized six meetings in various places in Baku's Xatai, Narimanov and Sabayil districts. It is true that police interfered in all the meetings, but they took place. We will continue our work. This is one of the effective and important elements of our struggle. Holding meetings on the ground is extremely useful in terms of mobilizing communities and preparing them for nationwide rallies. Of course, rallies are still on the agenda. We are taking Baku's executive authorities to court for banning rallies. We will try to make sure that this issue is brought up at the January session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. The Venice Commission is also negotiating with the government over freedom of assembly. We will conduct serious discussions with this body. We will try to ensure that the! authorities recognize the right of the opposition and citizens to freedom of assembly. But we have no intention to stay calm because of the bans of the government. We will continue and expand meetings with local people in Baku and in the regions.