BBC Monitoring Research,
18, February 2008

Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia has prompted a mixed reaction in former Soviet republics with their own breakaway regions. Politicians and experts in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova have said that Kosovo's independence does not set a precedent for so-called frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet area, while the leaders of breakaway regions have welcomed the province's independence, saying that this will strengthen their position in the international arena and set a precedent for the settlement of conflicts.

Armenia and Azerbaijan

Kosovo's independence from Serbia does not set a precedent for Azerbaijan's breakaway region of Nagornyy Karabakh although this gives a "positive signal" in terms of human rights in the predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated region, Armenia's prime minister said.

"Kosovo is not a precedent for us," Serzh Sargsyan said in an interview with the Russian news agency Interfax, adding that "a positive signal has been received from Kosovo regarding the protection of human rights in Nagornyy Karabakh".

Sargsyan, the front-runner in Armenia's 19 February presidential election, believes that Nagornyy Karabakh is different from Kosovo.

"I don't think they are like two peas in a pod," he said. "Nagornyy Karabakh has been independent for about 17 years although no-one has recognized it."

The 53-year-old prime minister is a native of Nagornyy Karabakh, which broke away from Azerbaijan in a separatist war in the early 1990s. The region, along with seven other Azerbaijani districts, has been controlled by ethnic Armenian and Armenian forces since a cease-fire in 1994.

The war claimed nearly 30,000 lives and displaced over a million people.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry also said that Kosovo cannot be a precedent for Nagornyy Karabakh. The ministry spokesman, Xazar Ibrahim, said that Azerbaijan is not going to recognize Kosovo as an independent state, as the region's declaration of independence from Serbia is contrary to international law.

"Such a declaration [of independence] is contrary to the norms of international law and is illegal," ANS TV showed Ibrahim telling reporters on 18 February. The spokesman stressed that Azerbaijan's position on Kosovo is based on its national interests and not on the will of any other country.

"Azerbaijan is an independent and a self-confident state, and it bases its policy on this," he said.

Meanwhile, Nagornyy Karabakh's foreign minister Georgi Petrosyan said that Kosovo's international recognition would strengthen Karabakh's positions in its talks with Azerbaijan, Nagornyy Karabakh Public TV reported on 18 February.

The chairman of Nagornyy Karabakh's parliament, Ashot Ghulyan, said that the declaration of independence is a stage that Nagornyy Karabakh has already gone through. What is more important to Nagornyy Karabakh is the consequence of Kosovo's declaration of independence, Ghulyan said, adding that Kosovo would be a precedent in international relations, Nagornyy Karabakh Public TV said.

A member of Nagornyy Karabakh's parliament has said that precedents like Kosovo are hard to ignore.

"Although the policy of double standards prevails in the world, I think that it will be more and more difficult to ignore the precedents of [East] Timor, Eritrea and probably Kosovo," Gagik Petrosyan told Arminfo news agency.

At the same time, Petrosyan called Kosovo an "artificial entity" without a right to independence.

"From the perspective of history, moral right and law in general, Kosovo should not have independence. It is an artificial entity," Arminfo quoted Petrosyan as saying. He added that Russia should use every possible means to block Kosovo's recognition by the West.

A leading Azerbaijani political analyst, Vafa Quluzada, hailed Kosovo's declaration of independence as a "good precedent" of US support for a Muslim country.

"The same is going to happen in the Caucasus," Quluzada, foreign affairs aide to former President Heydar Aliyev, told ANS television in an interview.

Quluzada said Kosovo's independence indicated that Washington has the final say in Europe. It also showed that Russia has lost its influence in Europe, as it could not help out its key ally, Serbia, the analyst said.

Asked if Russia could retaliate by recognizing Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Quluzada said that President Vladimir Putin, whom he called a "clever and pragmatic leader", would not allow this to happen.

Rasim Musabayov, another prominent political analyst based in Baku, believes that Kosovo's independence is not a tragedy for Azerbaijan, and that there is no reason to panic. "The events in Kosovo do not mean at all that they will help Karabakh's independence. However, the violation of the principle of territorial integrity in Europe is certainly a negative development for us," Novosti-Azerbaydzhan news agency quoted Musabayov as saying.

The expert believes that Azerbaijan may recognize Kosovo's independence only after Europe and Russia decide to do so.

Georgia

Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia and its possible implications for Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were at the centre of attention of Georgian politicians and the Georgian media on 18 February.

In remarks broadcast by all Georgian channels, President Mikheil Saakashvili addressed speculation that the West's recognition of Kosovo could lead Russia to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, saying that after years of "threats" of such a scenario "the situation has entered a serious phase". "I want our public, as well as the international community, to internalize full well that we are ready and we have the power to answer every step taken against Georgia in this context with much more effective steps. We will nip all acts of provocation in the bud and react appropriately," he warned.

Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze said drawing comparisons between Kosovo and Georgia's separatist regions was "completely groundless" and warned Moscow that recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia could itself set a "dangerous precedent" for Russia by leading autonomous entities in that country to demand independence as well. Deputy Parliament Speaker Mikheil Machavariani urged caution and called on Georgians to be "united and consolidated" against efforts by the country's "ill-wishers" to manipulate the Kosovo issue.

Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze also dismissed prospects that Kosovo could serve as a precedent and expressed the hope that the issue would not impede ongoing efforts to improve Georgian-Russian relations.

At the same time, the de facto leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Sergey Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoyty, held a joint news conference at the Interfax news agency's central office in Moscow that was broadcast live by Russia's Vesti TV.

Kokoyty insisted that Georgia's breakaway provinces, as well as Moldova's Dniester region, had more grounds for being recognized as an independent state than Kosovo and stressed that all three had in fact declared independence in the 1990s.

Bagapsh said the West's recognition of Kosovo's independence would indeed set a precedent and that US and Western efforts to deny this amount to policy of "double standards". Georgian politicians dismissed the separatist leaders' remarks, with leading pro-government MP Giga Bokeria saying: "neither one of these figures have any right to make decisions on this issue and no-one will allow them to do that. And more importantly, they do not express the will of even our Ossetian and Abkhaz fellow citizens." He added that Abkhazia's recognition would "amount to the legalization of ethnic cleansing".

Opposition Conservative Party MP Kakha Kukava concurred, noting that "such unserious statements have been made for years, so naturally they will be made now as well". New Right MP Davit Gamqrelidze also shrugged off Bagapsh and Kokoyty's claims and called on the Georgian government not to make harsh statements in response.

Throughout the day, representatives of all major opposition groups urged the authorities not to recognize Kosovo's independence. The National Council, an alliance of nine opposition parties, issued a special statement in which it said such a move would be "a betrayal of national interests". "The principle of the inviolability of territorial integrity should be ensured and Kosovo's independence should not be recognized unilaterally, without Serbia's consent, by UN member countries and, correspondingly, by Georgia," leading National Council member Paata Davitaia said.

As for the government's position, Bokeria said that Georgia had no intention of recognizing Kosovo's independence.

Moldova

Moldovan politicians and experts believe that Kosovo's independence may complicate the settlement of the conflict in the breakaway Dniester region and cause a wave of separatism not just in Europe but in the whole world. They called on the Moldovan government not to recognize the province's independence.

Kosovo's independence will not influence the settlement of the conflict between Moldova and its breakaway Dniester region, the opposition Our Moldova Alliance has said, according to a report by the Moldovan Infotag news agency on 18 February.

"There is no national, religious or territorial conflict in the Dniester region. The Dniester problem is political and it arose after the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to prevent Moldova from becoming an independent state," the Our Moldova Alliance said. The party said that the Kosovo issue should be solved in line with international law.

The leader of the fringe non-parliamentary People's Republican Party, Nicolae Andronic, said that Kosovo's declaration of independence will be fully used by those spreading separatist ideas in the Dniester region and will have an impact on the Dniester population. It is impossible to solve the Dniester problem in line with Moldova's constitution after Kosovo declared independence, Infotag quoted him as saying. "The failure to solve the Dniester problem before Kosovo declared independence proves the Communist authorities' inability and lack of desire to settle it," Andronic said.

The fringe non-parliamentary Social Party of Moldova Patria-Rodina believes that Kosovo's independence "will make the Dniester conflict settlement even much more difficult", Infotag said in the same report.

The party urged Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin to call a meeting of the UN Security Council and the Moldovan parliament to discuss issues related to Kosovo's independence and its consequences for Dniester settlement. The Socialists also called on Moldova's leadership not to recognize Kosovo "as an international entity and UN member". The Social Democratic Party of Moldova, led by the former prime minister and currently MP, Dumitru Braghis, expressed concern that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence "could cause a wave of separatist processes not just in Europe but in the whole world".

"The adoption of unilateral decisions undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a European state is far from being the best solution to this conflict and may escalate the situation in the region", the party said in a statement.

The Social Democrats also called on the Moldovan Foreign and European Integration Ministry "to express Moldova's straightforward position on the non-recognition of Kosovo's independence and to promote this position at the European and international levels".

Also on 18 February, the Basapress news agency quoted political analyst Viorel Cibotaru as saying that "Kosovo's independence will not have immediate consequences for the Dniester crisis".

Political analyst Gheorghe Cojocaru said that Kosovo's independence risks changing the rules established so far, Basapress reported.

In an editorial published in the Flux newspaper on 18 February, political analyst Dan Dungaciu said that Kosovo's independence is a "major test" for Europe which it has no right to fail. According to him, the EU and NATO cannot be divided when it comes to Kosovo because this will "paralyse their moves" in the region.

Dungaciu also said that the solution for Kosovo is important for the future rather than for the present, referring to separatist movements that it could cause in Bosnia-Hercegovina, Macedonia, Moldova or Georgia.