Day.az website, BBC Monitoring Service,
11, May 2008

An opinion poll conducted across Azerbaijan has found out that the majority of the respondents have full trust in the country's president. However, the respondents have no faith in other state institutions, in particular, courts and power-wielding bodies, the poll showed. The poll also found out low confidence in political parties although their ideas and values enjoy support in society. The respondents, the survey found, do not expect a breakthrough in the Karabakh settlement and are in favour of autonomy to the Azerbaijani enclave. The following is the text of K.K report by Azerbaijani website Day.az on 11 May headlined "Public opinion poll of Puls-R: `As a whole, the situation in Azerbaijan remains stable, the start of mass protest actions is not expected'"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

In January-February 2008, the Puls-R public opinion service, with the support of the German Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), conducted a poll among the population of Azerbaijan, and according to the data obtained, it realized a sociological monitoring entitled "Azerbaijan in 2007" a comparative analysis of data of sociological researches, conducted in the republic according to the results of 2005, 2006 and 2007 years.

As Day.az reports, the survey polled 1,000 respondents across the country, or 0.0139 per cent of the general total. The type of selection was random. The selection was carried out on the basis of domicile of respondents at the age of 18 and above. The poll was conducted in Lankaran, Lerik, Siyazan, Davaci, Saki, Oguz, Xanlar, Agstafa, Samux, Xizi, Neftcala, Tartar, Agcabadi, Agsu, Goycay districts, in overall 15 districts and 12 cities Baku, Lankaran, Liman, Saki, Ganca, Agstafa, Sirvan, Bilasuvar, Barda, Yevlax, Zardab and Kurdamir.

While determining the unit of research (respondents), the poll observed where possible their proportional compliance with key demographic parameters (gender, age, education, social status) characterizing the Azerbaijani Republic following the results of 1999 census.

As a result of the sociological monitoring, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. As a whole, the situation remains stable in Azerbaijan. According to the opinion of the absolute majority of the respondents, the emergence of massive protest actions are not expected. In the moods of the respondents with regard to life in Azerbaijan prevails positive feelings.

At the same time, summarizing the results of 2007, the share of people, who characterized their feelings about life in Azerbaijan with the terms of "fear", "uncertainty", " disappointment" has gone up slightly, although the weight of such people remains in the interval of 10-11 per cent. They are outsiders on whom the economic growth under way in the country has no impact anyway.

Karabakh's independence ruled out

2. The welfare standards of the people are improving. The share of the respondents, who have said this during the last three years, exceeds one and a half times the number of those who consider that their living standards have worsened. Almost one third of the respondents said that they have no material difficulties. This is the evidence of regeneracy of the middle layer in Azerbaijan.

However, the share of people, who barely make both ends meet, still amount to over half of the respondents, and about one tenth experiences an acute need. The growth in incomes was reflected in the fact that the least part of the family budgets are spent on foodstuffs. Despite more than the triple rise in electricity tariffs and twofold increase in tariffs for water, which happened in the beginning of 2007, it was not reflected on the capacity of the population to pay the public utilities.

3. The major three problems of greater concern for the population following the results of the polls for 2005, 2006 and 2007 years remain unchanged. They are the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict around the Nagornyy Karabakh problem, poverty and unemployment. The incumbent authorities have exactly declared these problems own priorities and are striving at least to minimize their acuteness if not tackle completely.

The opinion poll has revealed some progress in part of reduction in acuteness of perception of unemployment problem. As for poverty, respondents believe that against the backdrop of economic growth, this problem is being felt more critical. In the second troika of problems as usually highlighted is corruption, arbitrariness of the bureaucracy as well as problems in education and health sectors.

As of now, people, according to respondents, above all are in need of justice and legality. Further, with very close percentage remains the growth in "wellbeing". The security and stability as well as equality and freedom are priorities of the second order. As a whole, conservative rather than liberal and socialist moods prevail tangibly in public consciousness.

4. Population does not too much trust optimistic forecasts with regard to a breakthrough in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The temporary closing-down of the existing "neither peace, nor war" state is more likely, according to the opinion of the majority of the respondents. The poll confirmed the validity of the recommendations of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to prepare societies to compromise, which is inevitable in a peaceful regulation of the Karabakh conflict, since the overwhelming majority of the respondents do no accept it with regard to this issue.

As for an option of a settlement, about 22-25 per cent of the respondents agree to grant autonomy (cultural, local and even "the highest") to Nagornyy Karabakh. The idea of resolving the issue via a referendum, true provided that the Azerbaijani refugees return to [their homes in the occupied lands], gained rather considerable support (10-11 per cents) of the respondents. The independence for Nagornyy Karabakh is practically ruled out.

President enjoys full support

5. Summing up the results of the current poll and those held earlier, the president of the country preserves leadership for the level of trust. The overwhelming majority of the respondents have faith (fully or partially) in him. Taking into account the low level of trust in parliament, the Cabinet of Ministers and courts, one can state with a fair degree of confidence that the stability of various power branches in Azerbaijan and the whole power pyramid as a whole are provided exclusively thanks to trust of the population in the president.

The army and the mass media outlets are accordingly in the second and third places for the level of confidence enjoyed by the population. The low level of confidence of the population in the whole system of the power-wielding bodies, in particular, courts, draws attention, although following the results of 2007, their rating went up slightly.

As for the local power bodies, including the municipalities, the population express almost full distrust them. The rating of the public institutions (political parties, trade unions and the NGOs) are without saying low and continues to drop. The exception is religious bodies, the trust in which went up slightly following the results of 2007.

6. Anyway, the mood of leader [or chieftain] still predominates in Azerbaijan. With respect to such an important in conditions of pluralistic democracy institution, like political parties, this is not just cool but borders on complete disdain.

7. The mood remains in favour of renewal of the personnel in the structures of the public administration. The reformist majority predominates almost in all layers of the population. Despite difficulties in the development of democracy, its adherents are widespread in the composition of the population. Only one tenth of the population is active publicly and politically.

The majority of the polled has no precisely-expressed, sensible ideological preferences, and position themselves in the capacity of adherents of indefinite "traditional-national" values. The opposition in the imagination of the respondents loses political position by virtue of fragmentation, excessive ambitions of leaders, inadequate good organization, deficiency in resources and the pressing by the authorities. However, the ideology of political forces of the country preserves positive perception in public opinion.

8. The forthcoming presidential election in autumn this year is of great interest for the majority of the polled. The expectations of more than half of the polled in this connection are mercantile (pensions and wages will be increased), however, one third of the polled assume revival of the public and political life. Although almost half of the respondents assume that violations will take place in the course of the election, nevertheless, the majority believe that the election will mirror the will of the voters.

About 60 per cent of the polled consider that no-one is able to compete with incumbent President Ilham Aliyev. The name of the opposition Musavat Party leader Isa Qambar is often mentioned in the capacity of a possible rival although the level of support he enjoys is also low.

Chances, if not to win but stage a strong competition to Ilham Aliyev, will emerge for his opponents significantly in case the opposition is able to consolidate around a single candidate. The chances will further go up if such a single candidate becomes a new authoritative person.

Opposition papers rated high

9. The main source of information for the population of the country is national television channels. According to results of all the three opinion polls, the first place in the electronic media with long interval belongs to ANS TV and radio channels. Less than one tenth of the population reads newspapers regularly. Amongst the print media, the first places belong to Yeni Musavat and Azadliq newspapers. The number of those who uses the Internet as a source of information grows briskly.

10. According to the results of the three polls, non-religious behaviour is characteristic for the majority of the population. The poll in 2007 fixed the outlined in 2006 drop in the interests in the Islamic model of organizing the state and public life, the reduction in the share of supporters of priority of relations of Azerbaijan with the Islamic states.

Turkey Azerbaijan's best friend

11. The indisputable leader among countries with friendly relations with Azerbaijan is stably Turkey with Armenia among the enemy states. The deep polarization of the public opinion is observed with regard to Russia and Iran.

Those countries occupy high places both in the group of friendly and enemy states to Azerbaijan. The disposition of the population to countries - allies of Azerbaijan in GUAM [alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova] Georgia ad Ukraine is going up. The European Union is indisputably the most attractive integration union in the eyes of the respondents. About one fourth of the respondents assume that Azerbaijan should remain a neutral state and develop intergovernmental ties along all directions.