E-governance is a growing component of UNDP development programming in Azerbaijan. Over the past five years, UNDP has developed a portfolio of programmes valued at over $ 12.2 million (USD) making it one of the largest mainstreamed e-governance programmes in UNDP anywhere.
The portfolio is impressive for its size, scope and sustained partnership with the Government of Azerbaijan. Direct government cost-sharing accounts for 50% of all projects and third party cost-sharing is on the rise, currently at 14%. It is also having a marked and measurable development impact. UNDP projects have helped the government to shape policies in the e-governance area and to articulate a National ICT Strategy that has e-governance at its core. At a practical level, UNDP projects are a central component of the government’s public administration reform efforts where they have made a concrete contribution to the enhanced efficiency of public institutions and reduced levels of corruption.
In late 2004, UNDP Azerbaijan commissioned an independent “outcome” evaluation of its substantial e-governance portfolio. The evaluation had several objectives. First was to examine the overall status of the portfolio’s targeted development outcome, namely “greater transparency and accountability in the public service”. This component of the evaluation reviewed the political, economic and social factors that frame Azerbaijan’s current development context. It focused less on UNDP projects, and more on whether or not any progress had been made towards greater transparency and accountability in the country overall, given the complex political environment. The analysis excavates the all-important political dimension of the development context, which is often absent from most
development programming documents (and not only in UNDP).
Next the evaluation turned to UNDP’s role and contributions to furthering “transparency and accountability in the public service”. Here the analysis sought to determine how the outputs and immediate institutional-level outcomes of four UNDP e-governance projects 3 related and contributed to the overall outcome. The evaluation approached this question from the perspective of the outcome – if some progress towards transparency and accountability is apparent, can UNDP efforts be said to have made a contribution to this outcome, and in what ways? The intent was to examine the specific factors – programming strategies, project outputs, and impact of UNDP soft assistance -- that contributed to the outcome achievements of UNDP’s e-governance portfolio.
This evaluation comes at a critical historical juncture, when Azerbaijan is experiencing high economic growth (over 10% per year, buoyed by investments in its energy sector) while some 40% of the population live below the absolute poverty line. 4 In the political realm, according to watchdogs like Transparency International (TI), Azerbaijan is awash with profound governance challenges. Yet, the political terrain is more dynamic and complex than the blunt indicators of TI suggest. The government, aware of the dangers of longer-term instability, has declared reform to be a top priority, despite the enormous political challenges that reform will inevitably entail. Anticorruption measures are being put in place and long delayed public sector reforms initiated. Yet, questions about the legitimacy of the 2003 elections (marred by charges of electoral fraud), the crackdown against opposition parties, and the slow pace of reforms overall continue to buoy a latent but pervasive social dissatisfaction (evident in social surveys), which is exacerbated by poverty, unemployment and the enduring legacy of the war with Armenian forces over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the near civil war that followed. To date, 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory remains under occupation. In short, present day Azerbaijan inhabits a complex political and development space where much depends on the political will and ability of the leadership to make tough choices and implement difficult reforms, while still preserving overall stability within the country. E-governance is one strategy the government is pursuing to promote needed reform from within.
This complex and variegated picture is reflected in the findings of the evaluation. Interview and social survey data reveal that, overall, Azeris feel optimistic about their future, and believe that the government does intend to reform. Much of this hope is grounded in the belief that Azerbaijan’s growing oil patrimony will eventually make life better for all. On another level, informed observers of the development scene note discernable improvements towards greater transparency and accountability within some government institutions. Azeri optimism and the observers’ positive perceptions are balanced by deep feelings of frustration at the structural inequities within the country (including access to privilege) and the experiences of corruption that infuse everyday transactions in Azerbaijan, from an encounter with the local policeman to a trip to the hospital. Thus, if the people’s expectations of improved living standards and of serious political and public service reform are not met in the coming few years, there is a strong likelihood of serious backlash against the present government. At the same time, the evaluation found tangible and positive signs of reform. The National ICT Strategy process, in particular, elicited considerable and genuine stakeholder participation, setting new standards for transparency in the policy-process. Likewise significant signs of change could be seen within certain ministries where e-governance initiatives are underway. Overall, the findings suggest that the specific approach taken by UNDP and its partners to public administration reform is a key factor contributing to the success of these projects and their contribution to the overall outcome. This approach, which has e-governance at is centre, is highly strategic given Azerbaijan’s specific reform context, and has proven effective so far. Whether the positive steps towards enhanced transparency and accountability within certain institutions and processes are durable, or can contribute to wider and deeper reforms across the governance sector remains to be seen, and is dependent on many complex factors that lie outside the reach of UNDP programming. Primary among these is the political will of the government to reform, and its ability to do so while maintaining overall socio-political stability.
This report is organized into four parts and two annexes:
Part One reviews the development and governance context in which UNDP Azerbaijan’s present day e-governance portfolio has evolved, and the factors that facilitate or hinder transparency and accountability in the public sector. Next it examines the evolution of UNDP‘s e-governance portfolio, ending with a brief description of the four projects under review here, which were identified as contributing to the outcome of enhanced “transparency and accountability in the public service”
Part Two undertakes a four-part analysis of the targeted outcome, namely improvements in the transparency and accountability of the governance environment. Specifically, it examines: a) the perceptions of change in the governance environment (derived on the basis of interviews and documented sources); b) how UNDP project outputs have contributed to this outcome within the public administration sphere (output-outcome linkages); c) the additional factors that have facilitated or shaped progress towards the outcome; and d) the challenges to more profound, system-wide change, as well as the durability of the progress made so far.
Part Three examines UNDP’s partnership strategy. The emphasis is on deriving lessons learned and good practices, and assessing the contributions of “soft assistance” in relation to the success of this e-governance portfolio.
Part Four captures the evaluation’s principal findings and recommendations.
Annex A contains tables summarizing the key project outputs of the four UNDP e-governance projects reviewed by the evaluation.
Annex B provides a brief description of the outcome evaluation methodology, a list of interviews conducted, and a bibliography of documentation and sources used in the preparation of this report.
3 -These projects are: State Customs Committee (Phase I-III), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Phase I), National ICT Strategy, National E-governance Network Initiative (NICTS-Phase II); and the State Committee for Standards, Metrology and Patents. A further three projects were examined for the contribution to the outcome, but not included in the output to outcome analysis.
4 - SPPRED Programme Report 2003-2004. The absolute poverty line is approximated at 194,000 Manat per capita per month (approximately $39).
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